← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Aaron Simpson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1358

Aaron SimpsonvsKenny RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Wednesday, July 11, 2012San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Aaron Simpson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAaron Simpson: WrestlervsKenny Robertson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Aaron Simpson wins(78.1%)

Actual result: Aaron Simpson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Simpson at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aaron Simpson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Simpson

Red Corner

Kenny Robertson

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1490

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron SimpsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mario Miranda · Mar 11

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11

vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11

vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12

KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12

latest

Kenny RobertsonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Thiago Perpetuo · Mar 14

vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 14

KOvs Sultan Aliev · Jan 15

vs Ben Saunders · Jul 15

vs Roan Carneiro · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron SimpsonMetricKenny Robertson

3.60

Strikes / min

3.72

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

56%

Strike defense

52%

3.78

TDs / 15 min

1.37

83%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07evenly matched on net striking+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aaron SimpsonKenny Robertson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aaron Simpson(8 fights)Kenny Robertson(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.2|Blue -132.2

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -375.0|Blue +375.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron SimpsonTargetKenny Robertson

By target zone

57% acc · 56%

Head

36% acc · 34%

83% acc · 21%

Body

80% acc · 41%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

29% acc · 10%

Distance

41% acc · 31%

82% acc · 38%

Clinch

69% acc · 62%

81% acc · 52%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aaron Simpson rounds

even

Kenny Robertson rounds

Round 1Kenny Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:03

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 2Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control4:32

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control3:50

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 70

Sig Strikes

29 / 50

68%

Sig Str %

45.7%

97 / 135

Total Strikes

42 / 63

6 / 14

TDs

0 / 6

48%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:25

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kenny Robertson	25 / 40	30 / 45	0 / 2
1	Aaron Simpson	11 / 21	20 / 31	2 / 7
2	Kenny Robertson	1 / 3	7 / 9	0 / 3
2	Aaron Simpson	19 / 22	39 / 47	2 / 4
3	Kenny Robertson	3 / 7	5 / 9	0 / 1
3	Aaron Simpson	18 / 27	38 / 57	2 / 3

Aaron Simpson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Kenny Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9