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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Aaron Simpson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1351

Aaron SimpsonvsEric SchaferUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Aaron Simpson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAaron Simpson: WrestlervsEric Schafer: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Aaron Simpson wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Aaron Simpson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Simpson at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aaron Simpson has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Simpson

Red Corner

Eric Schafer

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+355

(22%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron Simpson

oldest →

vs Mario Miranda · Mar 11

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11

vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12

KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12

latest

Eric SchaferL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jason Brilz · Mar 10

KOvs Jorge Rivera · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron SimpsonMetricEric Schafer

3.60

Strikes / min

1.89

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

56%

Strike defense

56%

3.78

TDs / 15 min

1.81

83%

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07Δ 2.56 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aaron SimpsonEric Schafer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aaron Simpson(8 fights)Eric Schafer(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.9|Blue -138.9

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -468.0|Blue +468.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron SimpsonTargetEric Schafer

By target zone

38% acc · 71%

Head

13% acc · 93%

55% acc · 29%

Body

50% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

39% acc · 74%

Distance

11% acc · 79%

54% acc · 22%

Clinch

60% acc · 21%

40% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aaron Simpson rounds

even

Eric Schafer rounds

Round 1Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 140

Sig Strikes

14 / 102

40.3%

Sig Str %

13%

63 / 145

Total Strikes

17 / 107

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eric Schafer	3 / 30	6 / 35	0 / 0
1	Aaron Simpson	21 / 55	25 / 59	0 / 0
2	Eric Schafer	7 / 41	7 / 41	0 / 0
2	Aaron Simpson	26 / 55	27 / 56	0 / 0
3	Eric Schafer	4 / 31	4 / 31	0 / 0
3	Aaron Simpson	11 / 30	11 / 30	0 / 0

Aaron Simpson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Eric Schafer

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3