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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Aaron Rosa won · M-DEC R3
Elo1490
Elo1490

Aaron RosavsMatt LucasUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · Saturday, November 12, 2011Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Aaron Rosa won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aaron Rosa wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Aaron Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Rosa at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Aaron Rosa has 85pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Aaron Rosa has a 11cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Rosa
Red Corner
VS
Matt Lucas
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1490
Elo
1490
43
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
185 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron RosaL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Joey Beltran · Jun 11
L
KOvs James Te Huna · Mar 12
latest
Matt LucasNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron RosaMetricMatt Lucas
4.03
Strikes / min
1.27
4.41
Strikes absorbed / min
3.93
45%
Strike defense
40%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
1.00
85%
Takedown defense
0%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.38Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-2.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1500Strikes73.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Aaron RosaMatt Lucas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Aaron Rosa(3 fights)Matt Lucas(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron RosaTargetMatt Lucas

By target zone

25
40% acc · 42%
Head
19
49% acc · 100%
29
94% acc · 49%
Body
0
5
100% acc · 8%
Leg
0

By position

18
33% acc · 31%
Distance
14
41% acc · 74%
41
93% acc · 69%
Clinch
4
100% acc · 21%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Aaron Rosa rounds
1
even
0
Matt Lucas rounds
Round 1Aaron Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:03
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:49Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:26Control
Round 3Aaron Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:50
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:35Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
59 / 99
Sig Strikes
19 / 39
57%
Sig Str %
51.7%
256 / 311
Total Strikes
48 / 75
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 10
—
TD %
11%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:53
Ctrl Time
6:50

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Matt Lucas9 / 1925 / 370 / 50
1Aaron Rosa21 / 3961 / 830 / 00
2Matt Lucas4 / 611 / 141 / 30
2Aaron Rosa10 / 2180 / 930 / 00
3Matt Lucas6 / 1412 / 240 / 20
3Aaron Rosa28 / 39115 / 1350 / 00

Aaron Rosa

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3

Matt Lucas

Stance—
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights1