← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Justin Salas won · S-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1356

Aaron RileyvsJustin SalasUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Justin Salas won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAaron Riley: Well-roundedvsJustin Salas: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Aaron Riley wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Justin Salas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Riley at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aaron Riley has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Riley

Red Corner

Justin Salas

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1352

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron Riley

oldest →

vs Joe Brammer · May 10

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 11

latest

Justin SalasL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tim Means · Jun 12

SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Nov 13

KOvs Ben Wall · May 14

KOvs Joe Proctor · Jul 14

KOvs Jason Saggo · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron RileyMetricJustin Salas

3.45

Strikes / min

3.42

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

61%

Strike defense

68%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

2.43

60%

Takedown defense

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aaron RileyJustin Salas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aaron Riley(3 fights)Justin Salas(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.2|Blue +4.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +258.0|Blue -258.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron RileyTargetJustin Salas

By target zone

8% acc · 38%

Head

33% acc · 70%

24% acc · 31%

Body

58% acc · 13%

53% acc · 31%

Leg

69% acc · 17%

By position

14% acc · 88%

Distance

35% acc · 81%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

73% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aaron Riley rounds

even

Justin Salas rounds

Round 1Justin Salas edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Justin Salas edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Justin Salas edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 172

Sig Strikes

54 / 140

14.7%

Sig Str %

38.3%

26 / 172

Total Strikes

58 / 144

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 9

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Salas	18 / 48	18 / 48	2 / 3
1	Aaron Riley	8 / 53	8 / 53	0 / 0
2	Justin Salas	20 / 52	21 / 53	1 / 3
2	Aaron Riley	8 / 52	8 / 52	0 / 0
3	Justin Salas	16 / 40	19 / 43	0 / 3
3	Aaron Riley	10 / 67	10 / 67	0 / 0

Aaron Riley

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3

Justin Salas

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7