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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Aaron Riley won · U-DEC R3
Elo1352
Aaron Riley
Elo1490

Aaron RileyvsJoe BrammerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · Saturday, May 29, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aaron Riley won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aaron Riley wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Aaron Riley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Riley at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Aaron Riley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Riley
Red Corner
VS
Joe Brammer
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1352
Elo
1490
45
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron RileyL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 11
L
vs Justin Salas · Jul 13
latest
Joe BrammerNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron RileyMetricJoe Brammer
3.45
Strikes / min
2.15
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
61%
Strike defense
56%
1.18
TDs / 15 min
0.81
60%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes38.5 vs 3.0Takedowns0.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.17 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Aaron RileyJoe Brammer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Aaron Riley(3 fights)Joe Brammer(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.8|Blue +137.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron RileyTargetJoe Brammer

By target zone

17
25% acc · 37%
Head
20
27% acc · 54%
11
73% acc · 24%
Body
14
67% acc · 38%
18
86% acc · 39%
Leg
3
23% acc · 8%

By position

27
33% acc · 59%
Distance
29
33% acc · 78%
16
84% acc · 35%
Clinch
8
44% acc · 22%
3
75% acc · 7%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Aaron Riley rounds
0
even
0
Joe Brammer rounds
Round 1Aaron Riley edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:54
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2Aaron Riley edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:50
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 3Aaron Riley edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control2:21
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
46 / 104
Sig Strikes
37 / 107
43.3%
Sig Str %
33.7%
124 / 184
Total Strikes
51 / 122
3 / 8
TDs
1 / 2
33.3%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:05
Ctrl Time
0:32

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joe Brammer16 / 4622 / 520 / 00
1Aaron Riley18 / 4139 / 620 / 20
2Joe Brammer13 / 3519 / 420 / 10
2Aaron Riley11 / 2940 / 601 / 20
3Joe Brammer8 / 2610 / 281 / 10
3Aaron Riley17 / 3445 / 622 / 40

Aaron Riley

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3

Joe Brammer

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights1