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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Matt Hobar won · U-DEC R3
Elo1456
Aaron Phillips editorial illustration
Elo1490

Aaron PhillipsvsMatt HobarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · Saturday, August 23, 2014Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Matt Hobar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aaron Phillips wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Matt Hobar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Phillips at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Aaron Phillips enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Phillips
Red Corner
VS
Matt Hobar
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1456
Elo
1490
36
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron PhillipsL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Sam Sicilia · May 14
L
SUBvs Jack Shore · Jul 20
L
vs Gaston Bolanos · Apr 23
latest
Matt HobarL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · May 14
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Dec 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron PhillipsMetricMatt Hobar
1.51
Strikes / min
3.23
3.66
Strikes absorbed / min
4.27
43%
Strike defense
52%
0.86
TDs / 15 min
3.66
44%
Takedown defense
50%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.15Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1483Strikes18.0 vs 7.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Aaron PhillipsMatt Hobar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Aaron Phillips(4 fights)Matt Hobar(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -34.1|Blue +34.1
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron PhillipsTargetMatt Hobar

By target zone

23
59% acc · 61%
Head
51
60% acc · 81%
12
100% acc · 32%
Body
8
73% acc · 13%
3
100% acc · 8%
Leg
4
100% acc · 6%

By position

14
56% acc · 37%
Distance
6
40% acc · 10%
17
94% acc · 45%
Clinch
21
75% acc · 33%
7
64% acc · 18%
Ground
36
63% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Aaron Phillips rounds
0
even
3
Matt Hobar rounds
Round 1Matt Hobar edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:26Control
Round 2Matt Hobar edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:51Control
Round 3Matt Hobar edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
4:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
38 / 54
Sig Strikes
63 / 100
66.7%
Sig Str %
62%
230 / 279
Total Strikes
120 / 172
0 / 1
TDs
6 / 9
0%
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
12:54

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Matt Hobar21 / 3137 / 561 / 10
1Aaron Phillips9 / 1683 / 1060 / 00
2Matt Hobar27 / 4244 / 622 / 40
2Aaron Phillips22 / 2764 / 730 / 10
3Matt Hobar15 / 2739 / 543 / 40
3Aaron Phillips7 / 1183 / 1000 / 00

Aaron Phillips

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4

Matt Hobar

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3