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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Gaston Bolanos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1456

Elo1516

Aaron PhillipsvsGaston BolanosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Gaston Bolanos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Gaston Bolanos wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Gaston Bolanos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gaston Bolanos at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aaron Phillips enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Aaron Phillips (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Phillips

Red Corner

Gaston Bolanos

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1456

Elo

1516

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron PhillipsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Sicilia · May 14

vs Matt Hobar · Aug 14

SUBvs Jack Shore · Jul 20

latest

Gaston Bolanos

oldest →

KOvs Marcus McGhee · Jan 24

vs Cortavious Romious · Nov 24

SUBvs Quang Le · May 25

DECvs Michael Aswell Jr. · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron PhillipsMetricGaston Bolanos

1.51

Strikes / min

3.28

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

2.40

43%

Strike defense

50%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.66

44%

Takedown defense

42%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.15Δ 3.03 — meaningful gap+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aaron PhillipsGaston Bolanos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aaron Phillips(4 fights)Gaston Bolanos(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.0|Blue +60.0

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron PhillipsTargetGaston Bolanos

By target zone

32% acc · 41%

Head

39% acc · 51%

69% acc · 53%

Body

50% acc · 11%

25% acc · 6%

Leg

77% acc · 38%

By position

43% acc · 94%

Distance

46% acc · 68%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

59% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aaron Phillips rounds

even

Gaston Bolanos rounds

Round 1Gaston Bolanos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gaston Bolanos edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control3:05

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Gaston Bolanos edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:56

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 39

Sig Strikes

63 / 127

47.7%

Sig Str %

50.3%

79 / 104

Total Strikes

69 / 135

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

66.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:01

Ctrl Time

1:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gaston Bolanos	22 / 52	22 / 52	0 / 0	0
1	Aaron Phillips	10 / 26	10 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Gaston Bolanos	25 / 46	25 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Aaron Phillips	5 / 9	31 / 36	2 / 2	1
3	Gaston Bolanos	16 / 29	22 / 37	0 / 0	0
3	Aaron Phillips	2 / 4	38 / 42	1 / 3	0

Aaron Phillips

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Gaston Bolanos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5