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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Spike Carlyle won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1397
Aalon Cruz
Elo1392

Aalon CruzvsSpike CarlyleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, February 29, 2020Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Spike Carlyle won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:25

Style matchupAalon Cruz: Pressure fightervsSpike Carlyle: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Aalon Cruz wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Spike Carlyle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aalon Cruz at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Spike Carlyle is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Aalon Cruz has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Aalon Cruz has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Spike Carlyle has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Aalon Cruz has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aalon Cruz
Red Corner
VS
Spike Carlyle
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1397
Elo
1392
36
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
5'8"
198.12 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aalon Cruz
oldest →
L
KOvs Uros Medic · Mar 21
latest
Spike CarlyleL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Billy Quarantillo · May 20
L
vs Bill Algeo · Nov 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aalon CruzMetricSpike Carlyle
7.58
Strikes / min
2.55
8.88
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
58%
Strike defense
30%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.34
0%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.30evenly matched on net striking-1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes9.0 vs 0.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Aalon CruzSpike Carlyle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Aalon Cruz(2 fights)Spike Carlyle(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +4.6|Blue -4.6
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aalon CruzTargetSpike Carlyle

By target zone

2
50% acc · 100%
Head
19
70% acc · 95%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

2
17% acc · 100%
Distance
2
33% acc · 10%
0
Clinch
4
80% acc · 20%
0
Ground
14
78% acc · 70%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Aalon Cruz rounds
0
even
1
Spike Carlyle rounds
Round 1Spike Carlyle edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:05
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 12
Sig Strikes
20 / 29
16%
Sig Str %
68%
2 / 12
Total Strikes
29 / 38
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Spike Carlyle20 / 2929 / 380 / 00
1Aalon Cruz2 / 122 / 120 / 10

Aalon Cruz

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights2

Spike Carlyle

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3