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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Guilherme Pat won · U-DEC R3
Elo1484
Allen Frye Jr.
Elo1498
Guilherme Pat editorial illustration

Allen Frye Jr.vsGuilherme PatUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Saturday, December 13, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Guilherme Pat won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Guilherme Pat wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Guilherme Pat wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Guilherme Pat at -188 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Guilherme Pat has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Guilherme Pat has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Allen Frye Jr.
Red Corner
VS
Guilherme Pat
Blue Corner
+158
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-188
(65%)
1484
Elo
1498
28
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'6"
203.2 cm
Reach
205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Allen Frye Jr.No prior UFC fights on record.
Guilherme Pat
oldest →
L
DECvs Thomas Petersen · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Allen Frye Jr.MetricGuilherme Pat
2.20
Strikes / min
2.70
4.27
Strikes absorbed / min
2.03
36%
Strike defense
51%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
0%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.07Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes2.2 vs 4.3Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Allen Frye Jr.Guilherme Pat

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Allen Frye Jr.(1 fights)Guilherme Pat(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -13.9|Blue +13.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Allen Frye Jr.TargetGuilherme Pat

By target zone

17
26% acc · 52%
Head
53
60% acc · 83%
12
100% acc · 36%
Body
8
89% acc · 13%
4
44% acc · 12%
Leg
3
100% acc · 5%

By position

19
28% acc · 58%
Distance
54
60% acc · 84%
14
82% acc · 42%
Clinch
10
100% acc · 16%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Allen Frye Jr. rounds
2
even
1
Guilherme Pat rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control2:18
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control2:15
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Round 3Guilherme Pat edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control3:22
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 86
Sig Strikes
64 / 100
37%
Sig Str %
62.7%
73 / 132
Total Strikes
76 / 114
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
7:55
Ctrl Time
0:44

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Guilherme Pat24 / 3525 / 370 / 00
1Allen Frye Jr.19 / 4932 / 630 / 00
2Guilherme Pat13 / 3017 / 350 / 00
2Allen Frye Jr.10 / 2519 / 360 / 00
3Guilherme Pat27 / 3534 / 420 / 00
3Allen Frye Jr.4 / 1222 / 330 / 00

Allen Frye Jr.

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights1

Guilherme Pat

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights2