Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Fernando Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Fernando Padilla has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
- Fernando Padilla has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Fernando Padilla
oldest →W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 23W
SUBvs Luis Pajuelo · Mar 24L
KOvs Sean Woodson · Dec 24 Kyle Nelson
oldest →W
vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Fernando PadillaMetricKyle Nelson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.33Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Fernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Fernando Padilla(4 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Fernando PadillaTargetKyle Nelson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Kyle Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:07
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Kyle Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
