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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jamie Mullarkey won · S-DEC R3
Elo1502
Michael Johnson
Elo1490

Michael JohnsonvsJamie MullarkeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Saturday, July 9, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jamie Mullarkey won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsJamie Mullarkey: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jamie Mullarkey wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Jamie Mullarkey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Mullarkey at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Jamie Mullarkey
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1502
Elo
1490
40
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson
oldest →
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23
W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24
W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24
W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26
latest
Jamie Mullarkey
oldest →
W
vs John Makdessi · Sep 23
L
KOvs Nasrat Haqparast · Dec 23
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · May 24
W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Quillan Salkilld · Jan 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricJamie Mullarkey
4.27
Strikes / min
4.10
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
4.28
58%
Strike defense
54%
0.57
TDs / 15 min
2.46
81%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1496 vs 1488Strikes4.3 vs 4.4Takedowns0.6 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.10Form0.3 vs -0.1
Michael JohnsonJamie Mullarkey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Jamie Mullarkey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +12.5|Blue -12.5
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetJamie Mullarkey

By target zone

42
29% acc · 64%
Head
54
34% acc · 56%
22
54% acc · 33%
Body
21
62% acc · 22%
2
100% acc · 3%
Leg
21
91% acc · 22%

By position

58
32% acc · 88%
Distance
83
43% acc · 86%
4
80% acc · 6%
Clinch
11
61% acc · 11%
4
67% acc · 6%
Ground
2
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Michael Johnson rounds
1
even
1
Jamie Mullarkey rounds
Round 1Michael Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:34
Knockdowns1
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Jamie Mullarkey edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
45Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:03
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
66 / 190
Sig Strikes
96 / 217
35%
Sig Str %
42.7%
68 / 194
Total Strikes
96 / 218
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 2
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:37
Ctrl Time
0:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jamie Mullarkey20 / 5320 / 530 / 00
1Michael Johnson18 / 4220 / 450 / 10
2Jamie Mullarkey45 / 9545 / 950 / 00
2Michael Johnson18 / 5718 / 580 / 10
3Jamie Mullarkey31 / 6931 / 700 / 20
3Michael Johnson30 / 9130 / 910 / 00

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32

Jamie Mullarkey

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13