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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Rani Yahya won · SUB R3

Elo1495

Elo1369

Rani YahyavsMatthew LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Rani Yahya won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:19

Style matchupRani Yahya: WrestlervsMatthew Lopez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rani Yahya wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Rani Yahya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rani Yahya at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Lopez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matthew Lopez has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Lopez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rani Yahya

Red Corner

Matthew Lopez

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1495

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rani YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19

SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21

KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23

KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24

latest

Matthew LopezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Mitch Gagnon · Dec 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17

KOvs Raphael Assuncao · Nov 17

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18

vs Brad Katona · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rani YahyaMetricMatthew Lopez

1.71

Strikes / min

3.13

2.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

50%

Strike defense

55%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

3.32

29%

Takedown defense

71%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rani YahyaMatthew Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rani Yahya(10 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +125.8|Blue -125.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rani YahyaTargetMatthew Lopez

By target zone

46% acc · 70%

Head

26% acc · 50%

75% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 21%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

47% acc · 63%

Distance

41% acc · 93%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

70% acc · 35%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rani Yahya rounds

even

Matthew Lopez rounds

Round 1Rani Yahya edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:21

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Rani Yahya edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:14

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 3Rani Yahya edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:05

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 75

Sig Strikes

14 / 34

57%

Sig Str %

43.3%

109 / 148

Total Strikes

26 / 46

3 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

61%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:40

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matthew Lopez	10 / 25	14 / 29	0 / 0	1
1	Rani Yahya	20 / 44	31 / 55	1 / 3	0
2	Matthew Lopez	2 / 4	6 / 8	1 / 1	1
2	Rani Yahya	14 / 21	41 / 50	1 / 1	0
3	Matthew Lopez	2 / 5	6 / 9	0 / 0	0
3	Rani Yahya	6 / 10	37 / 43	1 / 2	1

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Matthew Lopez

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6