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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Abus Magomedov won · Submission R1

Elo1528

Elo1508

Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Abus MagomedovvsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Saturday, June 27, 2026Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Abus Magomedov won

Submission · Round 1 · 3:25

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk

Style matchupAbus Magomedov: WrestlervsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Abus Magomedov wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Abus Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michal Oleksiejczuk enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Abus Magomedov threatens submissions; Michal Oleksiejczuk has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Abus Magomedov has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Abus Magomedov has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Abus Magomedov

Red Corner

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1528

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abus Magomedov

oldest →

vs Caio Borralho · Nov 23

vs Warlley Alves · May 24

SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Oct 24

vs Michel Pereira · Apr 25

SUBvs Joe Pyfer · Oct 25

latest

Michal OleksiejczukW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 24

vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abus MagomedovMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk

3.07

Strikes / min

5.85

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

55%

Strike defense

59%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

1.02

100%

Takedown defense

52%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+1.35

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abus Magomedov(8 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.2|Blue -20.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abus MagomedovTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

25% acc · 50%

Head

8% acc · 20%

80% acc · 40%

Body

50% acc · 40%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

67% acc · 40%

By position

36% acc · 90%

Distance

26% acc · 100%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abus Magomedov rounds

even

Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds

Round 1Abus Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:36

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 27

Sig Strikes

5 / 19

37%

Sig Str %

26%

10 / 27

Total Strikes

5 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	5 / 19	5 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Abus Magomedov	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 0	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 42% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Abus Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights8

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18