Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Rory MacDonald · Dec 12L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17L
SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18 Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
BJ PennMetricClay Guida
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
BJ PennClay Guida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
BJ Penn(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -117.8|Blue +117.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1BJ Penn edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Clay Guida edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:05Control
Round 3Clay Guida edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:58Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
