Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jon Jones has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jon Jones has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jon Jones has a 20cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 18W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24 Anthony SmithL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23W
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24L
vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jon JonesMetricAnthony Smith
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.14Δ 3.99 — meaningful gap-1.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jon JonesAnthony Smith
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jon Jones(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +26.4|Blue -26.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jon JonesTargetAnthony Smith
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:40
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:45
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control4:21
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns2
Control3:38
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control3:34
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
