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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Esteban Ribovics won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1459

Elo1520

Edson BarbozavsEsteban RibovicsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Saturday, August 15, 2026Philadelphia, USA

Official fight result

Esteban Ribovics won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:32

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Esteban Ribovics

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Esteban Ribovics at -443 American odds · hypothetical only

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Esteban Ribovics

Blue Corner

+329

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-443

(82%)

1459

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Esteban Ribovics

oldest →

KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25

vs Elves Brener · Aug 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricEsteban Ribovics

4.14

Strikes / min

7.27

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.35

73%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+1.44

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Esteban Ribovics(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.2|Blue +61.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetEsteban Ribovics

By target zone

31% acc · 43%

Head

41% acc · 65%

69% acc · 37%

Body

91% acc · 16%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

86% acc · 19%

By position

46% acc · 97%

Distance

46% acc · 78%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

78% acc · 22%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Esteban Ribovics rounds

Round 1Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 64

Sig Strikes

63 / 126

44%

Sig Str %

52.5%

30 / 64

Total Strikes

70 / 133

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Esteban Ribovics	41 / 89	47 / 95	0 / 0
1	Edson Barboza	24 / 49	24 / 49	0 / 0
2	Esteban Ribovics	22 / 37	23 / 38	0 / 0
2	Edson Barboza	6 / 15	6 / 15	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Esteban Ribovics

Odds

-443

Market-implied probability

Esteban Ribovics 78%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Edson Barboza$429

Esteban Ribovics (model pick · research)$123

78% market-implied · model 55% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights33

Esteban Ribovics

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9