Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Edson BarbozaL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · May 24L
vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25L
KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25 Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Edson BarbozaMetricTony Ferguson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.54Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Edson BarbozaTony Ferguson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Edson Barboza(10 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -5.3|Blue +5.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -10.0|Blue +10.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Edson BarbozaTargetTony Ferguson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns1
Control1:21
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:36
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
