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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Loopy Godinez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1507

Elo1491

Loopy GodinezvsJulia PolastriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Loopy Godinez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLoopy Godinez: WrestlervsJulia Polastri: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Julia Polastri wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Loopy Godinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julia Polastri at +194 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Loopy Godinez has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Loopy Godinez

Red Corner

Julia Polastri

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+194

(34%)

1507

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'2"

154.94 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Loopy Godinez

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 23

vs Virna Jandiroba · Mar 24

vs Mackenzie Dern · Aug 24

vs Jessica Andrade · Aug 25

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Apr 26

latest

Julia Polastri

oldest →

vs Josefine Knutsson · Jun 24

vs Cory McKenna · Oct 24

KOvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Oct 25

DECvs Talita Alencar · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Loopy GodinezMetricJulia Polastri

4.43

Strikes / min

6.22

3.94

Strikes absorbed / min

5.18

62%

Strike defense

59%

2.99

TDs / 15 min

0.62

76%

Takedown defense

57%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Loopy GodinezJulia Polastri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Loopy Godinez(10 fights)Julia Polastri(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.2|Blue -16.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Loopy GodinezTargetJulia Polastri

By target zone

53% acc · 85%

Head

52% acc · 67%

82% acc · 11%

Body

61% acc · 16%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

94% acc · 17%

By position

53% acc · 89%

Distance

58% acc · 90%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

42% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Loopy Godinez rounds

even

Julia Polastri rounds

Round 1Loopy Godinez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control3:26

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Loopy Godinez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control3:16

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Loopy Godinez edged it

Sig. strikes58

Takedowns1

Control0:48

58Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 150

Sig Strikes

87 / 151

54%

Sig Str %

54.3%

114 / 184

Total Strikes

117 / 186

5 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

60.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:30

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Julia Polastri	14 / 25	24 / 36	0 / 0
1	Loopy Godinez	11 / 22	26 / 38	2 / 2
2	Julia Polastri	15 / 33	25 / 47	0 / 0
2	Loopy Godinez	15 / 27	26 / 41	2 / 3
3	Julia Polastri	58 / 93	68 / 103	0 / 0
3	Loopy Godinez	58 / 101	62 / 105	1 / 6

Loopy Godinez

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights14

Julia Polastri

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5