Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Kelleher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian KelleherL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Domingo Pilarte · Aug 21L
SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24 Mario BautistaW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26W
DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian KelleherMetricMario Bautista
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.28Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap+1.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brian KelleherMario Bautista
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -65.3|Blue +65.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brian KelleherTargetMario Bautista
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mario Bautista edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
