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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kai Kara-France won · KO/TKO

Elo1494

Elo1495

Rogerio BontorinvsKai Kara-FranceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kai Kara-France won

KO/TKO

Style matchupRogerio Bontorin: WrestlervsKai Kara-France: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rogerio Bontorin wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Kai Kara-France wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rogerio Bontorin at +117 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kai Kara-France has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kai Kara-France has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rogerio Bontorin

Red Corner

Kai Kara-France

Blue Corner

+117

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-137

(58%)

1494

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rogerio Bontorin

oldest →

vs Magomed Bibulatov · Feb 19

KOvs Raulian Paiva · Aug 19

vs Ray Borg · Feb 20

vs Matt Schnell · May 21

vs Brandon Royval · Jan 22

latest

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rogerio BontorinMetricKai Kara-France

2.63

Strikes / min

4.46

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

50%

Strike defense

64%

2.90

TDs / 15 min

0.56

51%

Takedown defense

83%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.64Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rogerio BontorinKai Kara-France

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)Kai Kara-France(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rogerio BontorinTargetKai Kara-France

By target zone

31% acc · 83%

Head

47% acc · 62%

100% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

31% acc · 83%

Distance

55% acc · 85%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rogerio Bontorin rounds

even

Kai Kara-France rounds

Round 1Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:15

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 17

Sig Strikes

13 / 22

35%

Sig Str %

59%

27 / 43

Total Strikes

21 / 32

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:15

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kai Kara-France	13 / 22	21 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Rogerio Bontorin	6 / 17	27 / 43	1 / 1	2

Rogerio Bontorin

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11