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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Stoltzfus won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1478

Elo1486

Marc-Andre BarriaultvsDustin StoltzfusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Saturday, November 2, 2024Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Dustin Stoltzfus won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:28

Style matchupMarc-Andre Barriault: Pressure fightervsDustin Stoltzfus: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Marc-Andre Barriault wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Dustin Stoltzfus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marc-Andre Barriault at -270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Stoltzfus enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marc-Andre Barriault has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marc-Andre Barriault

Red Corner

Dustin Stoltzfus

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1478

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marc-Andre BarriaultL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jan 24

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Jun 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · May 25

vs Shara Magomedov · Jul 25

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 26

latest

Dustin StoltzfusL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Abus Magomedov · Sep 22

SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marc-Andre BarriaultMetricDustin Stoltzfus

5.65

Strikes / min

3.30

5.94

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

49%

Strike defense

47%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

2.08

68%

Takedown defense

46%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marc-Andre BarriaultDustin Stoltzfus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marc-Andre Barriault(10 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.9|Blue +7.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marc-Andre BarriaultTargetDustin Stoltzfus

By target zone

60% acc · 86%

Head

65% acc · 85%

100% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

0% acc

Distance

40% acc · 15%

78% acc · 100%

Clinch

70% acc · 54%

Ground

80% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marc-Andre Barriault rounds

even

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

Round 1Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:54Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 11

Sig Strikes

13 / 20

63%

Sig Str %

65%

13 / 17

Total Strikes

23 / 32

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

3:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	13 / 20	23 / 32	0 / 0	1
1	Marc-Andre Barriault	7 / 11	13 / 17	0 / 0	0

Marc-Andre Barriault

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10