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Middleweight
3 Rounds
CB Dollaway won · SUB R1
Elo1491
CB Dollaway
Elo1351

CB DollawayvsJoe DoerksenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · Saturday, September 25, 2010Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

CB Dollaway won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:13

Style matchupCB Dollaway: WrestlervsJoe Doerksen: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Joe Doerksen wins(62.7%)

Actual result: CB Dollaway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Doerksen at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • CB Dollaway has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

CB Dollaway
Red Corner
VS
Joe Doerksen
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
1491
Elo
1351
42
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

CB Dollaway
oldest →
L
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15
L
KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15
W
vs Ed Herman · Jul 17
W
vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18
L
KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18
latest
Joe Doerksen
oldest →
W
SUBvs Tom Lawlor · May 10
L
vs Dan Miller · Dec 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

CB DollawayMetricJoe Doerksen
2.65
Strikes / min
1.43
2.58
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
54%
Strike defense
50%
3.55
TDs / 15 min
2.02
62%
Takedown defense
33%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.07Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap-1.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1519Strikes12.8 vs 15.1Takedowns2.2 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.83 vs 1.71Form0.0 vs 1.0
CB DollawayJoe Doerksen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
CB Dollaway(10 fights)Joe Doerksen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +140.4|Blue -140.4
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +49.2|Blue -49.2
Grappler Score
Red +49.3|Blue -49.3
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

CB DollawayTargetJoe Doerksen

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
0
1
100% acc · 100%
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

1
50% acc · 100%
Distance
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
CB Dollaway rounds
0
even
1
Joe Doerksen rounds
Round 1Joe Doerksen edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:09
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:36Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 2
Sig Strikes
1 / 1
50%
Sig Str %
100%
1 / 2
Total Strikes
6 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
1:36

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joe Doerksen1 / 16 / 60 / 20
1CB Dollaway1 / 21 / 20 / 02

CB Dollaway

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights14

Joe Doerksen

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3