Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Charlie Brenneman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Danny CastilloL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15 Charlie BrennemanL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Daniel Roberts · Jan 12L
SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 12L
SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Jan 14L
SUBvs Leandro Silva · Nov 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Danny CastilloMetricCharlie Brenneman
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.61evenly matched on net striking-0.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Danny CastilloCharlie Brenneman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Danny Castillo(10 fights)Charlie Brenneman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +2.1|Blue -2.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +32.0|Blue -32.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Danny CastilloTargetCharlie Brenneman
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Charlie Brenneman rounds
Round 1Charlie Brenneman edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:56
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:08Control
Round 2Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
