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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Prates won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1567

Li JingliangvsCarlos PratesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Carlos Prates won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:02

Style matchupLi Jingliang: Pressure fightervsCarlos Prates: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Carlos Prates wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Carlos Prates wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Prates at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Prates enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Carlos Prates has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (52.9%).
Carlos Prates has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Li Jingliang

Red Corner

Carlos Prates

Blue Corner

+320

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-410

(80%)

1495

Elo

1567

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Li Jingliang

oldest →

DECvs Neil Magny · Mar 20

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 21

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 21

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 22

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Sep 22

latest

Carlos PratesW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24

vs Ian Machado Garry · Apr 25

KOvs Geoff Neal · Aug 25

KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Li JingliangMetricCarlos Prates

4.46

Strikes / min

4.41

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

4.30

56%

Strike defense

47%

1.19

TDs / 15 min

0.18

60%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Li JingliangCarlos Prates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Li Jingliang(10 fights)Carlos Prates(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -72.6|Blue +72.6

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +637.0|Blue -637.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Li JingliangTargetCarlos Prates

By target zone

19% acc · 29%

Head

63% acc · 80%

40% acc · 10%

Body

33% acc · 2%

68% acc · 61%

Leg

91% acc · 18%

By position

37% acc · 100%

Distance

65% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Li Jingliang rounds

even

Carlos Prates rounds

Round 1Carlos Prates edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Carlos Prates edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:23

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 111

Sig Strikes

55 / 84

36%

Sig Str %

65.5%

41 / 111

Total Strikes

55 / 84

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Prates	25 / 36	25 / 36	0 / 0
1	Li Jingliang	26 / 66	26 / 66	0 / 0
2	Carlos Prates	30 / 48	30 / 48	0 / 0
2	Li Jingliang	15 / 45	15 / 45	0 / 0

Li Jingliang

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Carlos Prates

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7