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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Josh Hokit won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1596
Josh Hokit
Elo1495
Denzel Freeman

Josh HokitvsDenzel FreemanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Hokit won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Josh Hokit wins(86.6%)

Actual result: Josh Hokit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Hokit at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Josh Hokit enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Josh Hokit has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Denzel Freeman (53.5%).
  • Denzel Freeman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Hokit
Red Corner
VS
Denzel Freeman
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1596
Elo
1495
28
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh HokitW3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Max Gimenis · Nov 25
W
DECvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 26
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 26
latest
Denzel Freeman
oldest →
W
vs Marek Bujlo · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh HokitMetricDenzel Freeman
9.25
Strikes / min
2.45
6.81
Strikes absorbed / min
3.40
44%
Strike defense
50%
3.89
TDs / 15 min
0.00
75%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.44Δ 3.39 — meaningful gap-0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1514Strikes6.1 vs 2.5Takedowns8.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Josh HokitDenzel Freeman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801513154515781610← oldermost recent →
Josh Hokit(4 fights)Denzel Freeman(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +101.0|Blue -101.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh HokitTargetDenzel Freeman

By target zone

31
65% acc · 84%
Head
0
0% acc
6
67% acc · 16%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

17
55% acc · 46%
Distance
0
0% acc
9
82% acc · 24%
Clinch
0
11
73% acc · 30%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Josh Hokit rounds
0
even
0
Denzel Freeman rounds
Round 1Josh Hokit edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns1
Control3:47
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
37 / 57
Sig Strikes
0 / 7
64%
Sig Str %
0%
71 / 97
Total Strikes
0 / 8
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:47
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Denzel Freeman0 / 70 / 80 / 10
1Josh Hokit37 / 5771 / 971 / 20

Josh Hokit

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2

Denzel Freeman

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights2