Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
- Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Beneil Dariush · May 21L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23 Michael ChiesaW3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricMichael Chiesa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tony FergusonMichael Chiesa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -43.8|Blue +43.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -140.0|Blue +140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tony FergusonTargetMichael Chiesa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:34Control
