Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jose Aldo has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jose AldoL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25 Jeremy StephensL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20L
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21L
SUBvs King Green · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jose AldoMetricJeremy Stephens
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jose AldoJeremy Stephens
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jose Aldo(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +20.7|Blue -20.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jose AldoTargetJeremy Stephens
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:24
Knockdowns1
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
