Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- John Makdessi has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- John Makdessi has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alan Patrick (53.5%).
- Alan Patrick has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John MakdessiL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23 Alan PatrickL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18L
KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18L
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John MakdessiMetricAlan Patrick
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.37Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap-1.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John MakdessiAlan Patrick
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Makdessi(10 fights)Alan Patrick(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +51.1|Blue -51.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +18.0|Blue -18.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John MakdessiTargetAlan Patrick
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 2John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 3John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:01
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
