Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Raphael Assuncao has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Lopez (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Raphael Assuncao
oldest →L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21W
vs Victor Henry · Oct 22L
SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23 Matthew LopezL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16W
vs Mitch Gagnon · Dec 16W
KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17L
KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Raphael AssuncaoMetricMatthew Lopez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Raphael AssuncaoMatthew Lopez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +126.3|Blue -126.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Raphael AssuncaoTargetMatthew Lopez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matthew Lopez edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Round 3Raphael Assuncao edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
