Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sean Spencer enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sean Spencer (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paulo ThiagoL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 12L
vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12W
vs Michel Prazeres · May 13L
KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13L
vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14 Sean SpencerL4 streak
oldest →L
vs Cathal Pendred · Jan 15L
SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Sep 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paulo ThiagoMetricSean Spencer
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.22
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paulo ThiagoSean Spencer
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Sean Spencer(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -4.3|Blue +4.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paulo ThiagoTargetSean Spencer
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sean Spencer edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control1:10
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:21Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Sean Spencer edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control1:31
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:31Control
Round 3Sean Spencer edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
