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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sean O'Malley won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1533

Elo1522

Sean O'MalleyvsAiemann ZahabiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Freedom 250 · Sunday, June 14, 2026Washington, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:02

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Sean O'Malley

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Sean O'Malley at -411 American odds · hypothetical only

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Style matchupSean O'Malley: StrikervsAiemann Zahabi: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aiemann Zahabi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Sean O'Malley is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Aiemann Zahabi has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Aiemann Zahabi has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Sean O'Malley has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sean O'Malley

Red Corner

Aiemann Zahabi

Blue Corner

-411

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+312

(24%)

1533

Elo

1522

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean O'Malley

oldest →

KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 23

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

latest

Aiemann ZahabiW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aoriqileng · Jun 23

vs Javid Basharat · Mar 24

vs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 24

vs Jose Aldo · May 25

vs Marlon Vera · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean O'MalleyMetricAiemann Zahabi

6.05

Strikes / min

4.54

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.08

60%

Strike defense

69%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

0.12

60%

Takedown defense

83%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.65Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap+0.46

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean O'Malley(10 fights)Aiemann Zahabi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.5|Blue -10.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean O'MalleyTargetAiemann Zahabi

By target zone

48% acc · 78%

Head

24% acc · 19%

54% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

84% acc · 81%

By position

51% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean O'Malley rounds

even

Aiemann Zahabi rounds

Round 1Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 81

Sig Strikes

32 / 56

49%

Sig Str %

55%

41 / 81

Total Strikes

32 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aiemann Zahabi	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 0
1	Sean O'Malley	14 / 35	14 / 35	0 / 0
2	Aiemann Zahabi	24 / 40	24 / 40	0 / 0
2	Sean O'Malley	27 / 46	27 / 46	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Sean O'Malley

Odds

-411

Market-implied probability

Sean O'Malley 77%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Sean O'Malley (model pick · research)$124

Aiemann Zahabi$412

77% market-implied · model 60% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Aiemann Zahabi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10