Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ian Machado Garry has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Neil Magny has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Neil Magny
oldest →L
KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25W
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25 Ian Machado GarryW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Neil MagnyMetricIan Machado Garry
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.96evenly matched on net striking+1.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Neil MagnyIan Machado Garry
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Neil Magny(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -35.4|Blue +35.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Neil MagnyTargetIan Machado Garry
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Ian Machado Garry rounds
Round 1Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:05
20Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:07Control
Round 2Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control1:05
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 3Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
40Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
