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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chepe Mariscal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1527

Trevor PeekvsChepe MariscalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Saturday, June 24, 2023Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Chepe Mariscal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTrevor Peek: Pressure fightervsChepe Mariscal: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Chepe Mariscal wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Chepe Mariscal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chepe Mariscal at +132 American odds

+$132 profit

$232 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Trevor Peek (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Trevor Peek

Red Corner

Chepe Mariscal

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+132

(43%)

1492

Elo

1527

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trevor PeekL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Erick Gonzalez · Feb 23

vs Mohammad Yahya · Oct 23

vs Charlie Campbell · Apr 24

vs Yanal Ashmouz · Sep 24

latest

Chepe Mariscal

oldest →

KOvs Jack Jenkins · Sep 23

vs Morgan Charriere · Apr 24

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 24

vs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 25

vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trevor PeekMetricChepe Mariscal

4.39

Strikes / min

4.14

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

43%

Strike defense

52%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

2.34

52%

Takedown defense

59%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Trevor PeekChepe Mariscal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Trevor Peek(5 fights)Chepe Mariscal(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.5|Blue +34.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Trevor PeekTargetChepe Mariscal

By target zone

27% acc · 49%

Head

54% acc · 72%

74% acc · 45%

Body

79% acc · 15%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

37% acc · 76%

Distance

53% acc · 58%

60% acc · 24%

Clinch

87% acc · 28%

Ground

63% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Trevor Peek rounds

even

Chepe Mariscal rounds

Round 1Chepe Mariscal edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:20

26Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Chepe Mariscal edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:52

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:33Control

Round 3Chepe Mariscal edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:11

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 125

Sig Strikes

71 / 117

43.3%

Sig Str %

62.3%

65 / 140

Total Strikes

145 / 203

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 12

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

5:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chepe Mariscal	26 / 51	45 / 71	3 / 4	1
1	Trevor Peek	24 / 59	29 / 64	0 / 0	0
2	Chepe Mariscal	12 / 17	44 / 54	1 / 4	0
2	Trevor Peek	13 / 22	16 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Chepe Mariscal	33 / 49	56 / 78	0 / 4	0
3	Trevor Peek	14 / 44	20 / 50	0 / 0	0

Trevor Peek

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Chepe Mariscal

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6