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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tagir Ulanbekov won · SUB R1

Elo1513

Elo1506

Tagir UlanbekovvsNate ManessUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Saturday, November 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tagir Ulanbekov won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:11

Style matchupTagir Ulanbekov: WrestlervsNate Maness: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Tagir Ulanbekov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tagir Ulanbekov at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Maness has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tagir Ulanbekov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tagir Ulanbekov

Red Corner

Nate Maness

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1513

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tagir Ulanbekov

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Mar 22

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 23

vs Clayton Carpenter · Jan 25

vs Azat Maksum · Jun 25

SUBvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 25

latest

Nate ManessW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Nov 20

KOvs Tony Gravely · Sep 21

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jun 22

KOvs Mateus Mendonca · Oct 23

vs Jimmy Flick · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tagir UlanbekovMetricNate Maness

3.01

Strikes / min

3.14

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

50%

Strike defense

42%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

0.68

63%

Takedown defense

80%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tagir UlanbekovNate Maness

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tagir Ulanbekov(8 fights)Nate Maness(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.1|Blue -7.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tagir UlanbekovTargetNate Maness

By target zone

50% acc · 100%

Head

25% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

33% acc · 50%

Distance

33% acc · 75%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tagir Ulanbekov rounds

even

Nate Maness rounds

Round 1Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:34

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 9

Sig Strikes

4 / 10

44%

Sig Str %

40%

9 / 14

Total Strikes

23 / 30

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Maness	4 / 10	23 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Tagir Ulanbekov	4 / 9	9 / 14	1 / 2	1

Tagir Ulanbekov

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Nate Maness

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7