Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Colby Covington won · U-DEC R5
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos
Elo1491
Colby Covington

Rafael Dos AnjosvsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Saturday, June 9, 2018Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Colby Covington
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1491
Elo
1491
41
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest
Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricColby Covington
3.48
Strikes / min
3.81
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
60%
Strike defense
54%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
3.64
54%
Takedown defense
68%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1665 vs 1626Strikes45.0 vs 35.3Takedowns1.8 vs 4.6Sub Atts0.58 vs 0.22Form0.7 vs 1.1
Rafael Dos AnjosColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetColby Covington

By target zone

54
39% acc · 51%
Head
54
24% acc · 55%
37
82% acc · 35%
Body
14
42% acc · 14%
14
100% acc · 13%
Leg
31
91% acc · 31%

By position

70
43% acc · 67%
Distance
90
32% acc · 91%
32
100% acc · 30%
Clinch
8
50% acc · 8%
3
100% acc · 3%
Ground
1
50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
1
even
3
Colby Covington rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:43Control
Round 2Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:09Control
Round 3Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:02Control
Round 4Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns3
Control2:14
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:53Control
Round 5Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:49Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
105 / 198
Sig Strikes
99 / 296
52.6%
Sig Str %
32.2%
130 / 223
Total Strikes
142 / 346
3 / 6
TDs
7 / 18
37.5%
TD %
39.8%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:14
Ctrl Time
12:36

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Colby Covington17 / 5727 / 692 / 40
1Rafael Dos Anjos27 / 4236 / 510 / 00
2Colby Covington21 / 6232 / 772 / 30
2Rafael Dos Anjos20 / 4025 / 450 / 00
3Colby Covington29 / 7239 / 820 / 30
3Rafael Dos Anjos22 / 4423 / 450 / 00
4Rafael Dos Anjos19 / 3422 / 373 / 40
4Colby Covington12 / 4918 / 551 / 20
5Colby Covington20 / 5626 / 632 / 60
5Rafael Dos Anjos17 / 3824 / 450 / 20

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17