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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sergey Morozov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1459

Sergey MorozovvsJourney NewsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sergey Morozov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sergey Morozov wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Sergey Morozov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergey Morozov at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergey Morozov has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sergey Morozov

Red Corner

Journey Newson

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1498

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergey Morozov

oldest →

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 21

vs Khalid Taha · Jul 21

SUBvs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Feb 22

vs Raulian Paiva · Jun 22

latest

Journey Newson

oldest →

vs Ricardo Ramos · Jun 19

vs Domingo Pilarte · Feb 20

KOvs Randy Costa · Sep 20

vs Fernie Garcia · May 22

SUBvs Marcus McGhee · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergey MorozovMetricJourney Newson

3.01

Strikes / min

2.64

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

61%

Strike defense

64%

3.63

TDs / 15 min

0.56

68%

Takedown defense

43%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergey MorozovJourney Newson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergey Morozov(5 fights)Journey Newson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.8|Blue -39.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergey MorozovTargetJourney Newson

By target zone

9% acc · 23%

Head

13% acc · 38%

67% acc · 27%

Body

50% acc · 27%

88% acc · 50%

Leg

64% acc · 35%

By position

18% acc · 53%

Distance

24% acc · 96%

82% acc · 30%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

83% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergey Morozov rounds

even

Journey Newson rounds

Round 1Sergey Morozov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:24

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sergey Morozov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:21

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sergey Morozov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control3:14

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 105

Sig Strikes

26 / 106

28%

Sig Str %

25%

65 / 145

Total Strikes

49 / 136

6 / 13

TDs

0 / 2

57.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:59

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Journey Newson	10 / 47	11 / 48	0 / 1
1	Sergey Morozov	12 / 43	16 / 47	2 / 2
2	Journey Newson	8 / 32	14 / 39	0 / 0
2	Sergey Morozov	11 / 38	21 / 49	2 / 5
3	Journey Newson	8 / 27	24 / 49	0 / 1
3	Sergey Morozov	7 / 24	28 / 49	2 / 6

Sergey Morozov

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5

Journey Newson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6