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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1479

Elo1521

Belal MuhammadvsSean BradyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:47

Style matchupBelal Muhammad: WrestlervsSean Brady: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Brady at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Belal Muhammad

Red Corner

Sean Brady

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1479

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Sean Brady

oldest →

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25

DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Belal MuhammadMetricSean Brady

4.43

Strikes / min

4.08

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.77

55%

Strike defense

59%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

3.58

90%

Takedown defense

86%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking+1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Belal MuhammadSean Brady

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Sean Brady(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.3|Blue +42.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Belal MuhammadTargetSean Brady

By target zone

35% acc · 80%

Head

41% acc · 69%

58% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 7%

71% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

38% acc · 99%

Distance

49% acc · 98%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Belal Muhammad rounds

even

Sean Brady rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 209

Sig Strikes

58 / 118

36.5%

Sig Str %

49%

80 / 209

Total Strikes

58 / 118

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Brady	25 / 62	25 / 62	0 / 2
1	Belal Muhammad	26 / 80	26 / 80	0 / 0
2	Sean Brady	33 / 56	33 / 56	0 / 3
2	Belal Muhammad	54 / 129	54 / 129	0 / 0

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11