Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Pague enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Dustin Pague threatens submissions; Kyoji Horiguchi has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Kyoji Horiguchi has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Dustin Pague has a 28cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PagueL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs John Albert · Dec 11W
SUBvs Jared Papazian · Jun 12L
vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13 Kyoji Horiguchi
oldest →W
vs Ali Bagautinov · Nov 16W
SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25L
KOvs Manel Kape · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PagueMetricKyoji Horiguchi
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.31Δ 2.95 — meaningful gap+1.64
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dustin PagueKyoji Horiguchi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Pague(6 fights)Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -161.8|Blue +161.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.3|Blue +49.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dustin PagueTargetKyoji Horiguchi
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Pague edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control3:07
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:41Control
Round 2Kyoji Horiguchi edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:22
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:11Control
1Knockdowns
