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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Myktybek Orolbai won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1549

Elves BrenervsMyktybek OrolbaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Myktybek Orolbai won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElves Brener: Pressure fightervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Myktybek Orolbai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Myktybek Orolbai at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Elves Brener has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Elves Brener

Red Corner

Myktybek Orolbai

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1487

Elo

1549

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elves BrenerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 23

KOvs Guram Kutateladze · Jul 23

KOvs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Nov 23

KOvs Joel Alvarez · Aug 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Aug 25

latest

Myktybek OrolbaiW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Uros Medic · Nov 23

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Oct 24

SUBvs Tofiq Musayev · Jun 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 25

vs Chris Curtis · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elves BrenerMetricMyktybek Orolbai

4.76

Strikes / min

2.78

5.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

50%

Strike defense

51%

0.99

TDs / 15 min

8.77

76%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elves BrenerMyktybek Orolbai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elves Brener(6 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.6|Blue +61.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elves BrenerTargetMyktybek Orolbai

By target zone

39% acc · 50%

Head

50% acc · 80%

58% acc · 15%

Body

91% acc · 15%

94% acc · 35%

Leg

60% acc · 5%

By position

47% acc · 73%

Distance

42% acc · 49%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

85% acc · 23%

Ground

75% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elves Brener rounds

even

Myktybek Orolbai rounds

Round 1Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:30

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:06Control

Round 2Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:20

28Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:56Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns3

Control2:05

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 91

Sig Strikes

65 / 119

52.3%

Sig Str %

54%

79 / 125

Total Strikes

83 / 138

3 / 6

TDs

5 / 17

30%

TD %

32.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:55

Ctrl Time

7:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Myktybek Orolbai	20 / 35	26 / 41	2 / 4
1	Elves Brener	10 / 19	14 / 23	0 / 1
2	Myktybek Orolbai	28 / 49	35 / 57	2 / 9
2	Elves Brener	21 / 34	33 / 47	0 / 0
3	Myktybek Orolbai	17 / 35	22 / 40	1 / 4
3	Elves Brener	17 / 38	32 / 55	3 / 5

Elves Brener

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Myktybek Orolbai

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6