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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Keita Nakamura won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1375

Keita NakamuravsSalim TouahriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Keita Nakamura won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Keita Nakamura wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Keita Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Keita Nakamura at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Salim Touahri has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Keita Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Keita Nakamura

Red Corner

Salim Touahri

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1492

Elo

1375

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Keita NakamuraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Noke · Jul 16

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16

vs Alex Morono · Sep 17

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18

vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19

latest

Salim TouahriL2 streak

oldest →

vs Warlley Alves · Oct 17

vs Mickey Gall · Aug 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Keita NakamuraMetricSalim Touahri

2.23

Strikes / min

2.60

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

58%

Strike defense

58%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.00

63%

Takedown defense

83%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.97evenly matched on net striking-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Keita NakamuraSalim Touahri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Keita Nakamura(8 fights)Salim Touahri(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +116.7|Blue -116.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -182.0|Blue +182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Keita NakamuraTargetSalim Touahri

By target zone

39% acc · 78%

Head

27% acc · 41%

33% acc · 5%

Body

71% acc · 50%

78% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

40% acc · 88%

Distance

36% acc · 74%

63% acc · 12%

Clinch

90% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Keita Nakamura rounds

even

Salim Touahri rounds

Round 1Salim Touahri edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Keita Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Keita Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 97

Sig Strikes

34 / 79

41%

Sig Str %

42.7%

55 / 112

Total Strikes

42 / 87

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Salim Touahri	11 / 22	11 / 22	0 / 0
1	Keita Nakamura	7 / 23	7 / 23	0 / 1
2	Salim Touahri	16 / 32	24 / 40	0 / 0
2	Keita Nakamura	18 / 33	32 / 48	0 / 1
3	Salim Touahri	7 / 25	7 / 25	0 / 0
3	Keita Nakamura	16 / 41	16 / 41	0 / 2

Keita Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Salim Touahri

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3