Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jailton Almeida threatens submissions; Alexandr Romanov has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Alexandr Romanov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jailton Almeida has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).
- Jailton Almeida has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jailton AlmeidaL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 23L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 24W
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Jan 25L
vs Alexander Volkov · Oct 25L
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Feb 26 Alexandr RomanovW2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Apr 22L
vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23W
vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23W
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jailton AlmeidaMetricAlexandr Romanov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.93evenly matched on net striking+1.65
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jailton AlmeidaAlexandr Romanov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jailton Almeida(10 fights)Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -252.0|Blue +252.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jailton AlmeidaTargetAlexandr Romanov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jailton Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control2:07
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
