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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jake Hadley won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1508

Jake HadleyvsCaolan LoughranUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jake Hadley won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Caolan Loughran wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Jake Hadley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caolan Loughran at -238 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Hadley enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Caolan Loughran has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jake Hadley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Hadley

Red Corner

Caolan Loughran

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-238

(70%)

1496

Elo

1508

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake HadleyL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Carlos Candelario · Nov 22

KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Mar 23

vs Cody Durden · Aug 23

vs Charles Johnson · May 24

vs Cameron Smotherman · Oct 24

latest

Caolan LoughranW2 streak

oldest →

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 23

vs Angel Pacheco · Mar 24

vs Nathan Fletcher · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake HadleyMetricCaolan Loughran

3.80

Strikes / min

4.73

4.16

Strikes absorbed / min

5.20

61%

Strike defense

52%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

3.00

54%

Takedown defense

87%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake HadleyCaolan Loughran

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Hadley(7 fights)Caolan Loughran(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.7|Blue +11.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake HadleyTargetCaolan Loughran

By target zone

33% acc · 43%

Head

24% acc · 50%

87% acc · 16%

Body

62% acc · 27%

100% acc · 41%

Leg

94% acc · 23%

By position

52% acc · 96%

Distance

36% acc · 97%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Hadley rounds

even

Caolan Loughran rounds

Round 1Jake Hadley edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Caolan Loughran edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:01

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 3Jake Hadley edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:06

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 154

Sig Strikes

66 / 181

52%

Sig Str %

37.3%

107 / 181

Total Strikes

68 / 188

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 8

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

1:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Caolan Loughran	19 / 41	19 / 41	0 / 0
1	Jake Hadley	27 / 48	27 / 48	0 / 0
2	Caolan Loughran	22 / 67	24 / 73	1 / 5
2	Jake Hadley	24 / 49	36 / 62	0 / 1
3	Caolan Loughran	25 / 73	25 / 74	0 / 3
3	Jake Hadley	30 / 57	44 / 71	0 / 0

Jake Hadley

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Caolan Loughran

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4