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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mauricio Ruffy won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1553

Elo1454

Mauricio RuffyvsMichael ChandlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Freedom 250 · Sunday, June 14, 2026Washington, USA

Official fight result

Mauricio Ruffy won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:29

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Michael Chandler

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Michael Chandler at +435 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupMauricio Ruffy: Pressure fightervsMichael Chandler: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Mauricio Ruffy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chandler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mauricio Ruffy is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Michael Chandler has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mauricio Ruffy has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mauricio Ruffy has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Mauricio Ruffy has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Ruffy

Red Corner

Michael Chandler

Blue Corner

-615

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1553

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio Ruffy

oldest →

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · May 24

vs James Llontop · Nov 24

KOvs King Green · Mar 25

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 25

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jan 26

latest

Michael ChandlerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21

KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22

vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24

KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuffyMetricMichael Chandler

4.19

Strikes / min

4.04

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

58%

Strike defense

43%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.96

85%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Ruffy(6 fights)Michael Chandler(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +99.0|Blue -99.0

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -294.0|Blue +294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuffyTargetMichael Chandler

By target zone

44% acc · 84%

Head

29% acc · 67%

50% acc · 5%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 11%

Leg

50% acc · 33%

By position

46% acc · 89%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Ruffy rounds

even

Michael Chandler rounds

Round 1Mauricio Ruffy edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns2

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 40

Sig Strikes

3 / 12

47%

Sig Str %

25%

20 / 41

Total Strikes

3 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Chandler	3 / 12	3 / 12	0 / 3	0
1	Mauricio Ruffy	19 / 40	20 / 41	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Mauricio Ruffy

Odds

-615

Market-implied probability

Michael Chandler 18%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Mauricio Ruffy$116

Michael Chandler (model pick · research)$535

18% market-implied · model 38% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Mauricio Ruffy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Michael Chandler

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7