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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Jake Ellenberger won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1367

Jake ShieldsvsJake EllenbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Jake Ellenberger won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:53

Style matchupJake Shields: WrestlervsJake Ellenberger: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jake Ellenberger wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Ellenberger at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jake Ellenberger has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Shields

Red Corner

Jake Ellenberger

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1490

Elo

1367

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Shields

oldest →

vs Georges St-Pierre · Apr 11

vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Feb 12

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 13

vs Demian Maia · Oct 13

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 14

latest

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake ShieldsMetricJake Ellenberger

2.45

Strikes / min

2.47

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

56%

Strike defense

60%

2.83

TDs / 15 min

2.04

35%

Takedown defense

86%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.65Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake ShieldsJake Ellenberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Shields(7 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +123.1|Blue -123.1

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake ShieldsTargetJake Ellenberger

By target zone

0% acc

Head

54% acc · 78%

100% acc · 100%

Body

50% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

8% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 22%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

Ground

83% acc · 56%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Shields rounds

even

Jake Ellenberger rounds

Round 1Jake Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 13

Sig Strikes

9 / 16

Sig Str %

56%

1 / 13

Total Strikes

10 / 17

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jake Ellenberger	9 / 16	10 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Shields	1 / 13	1 / 13	0 / 1	0

Jake Shields

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19