Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Alistair Overeem has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alistair Overeem has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17 Alistair Overeem
oldest →W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricAlistair Overeem
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.61Δ 3.84 — meaningful gap+1.23
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Roy NelsonAlistair Overeem
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.4|Blue +2.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Roy NelsonTargetAlistair Overeem
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:34
Knockdowns1
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
