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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Al Iaquinta won · S-DEC R3

Elo1456

Elo1411

Jorge MasvidalvsAl IaquintaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · Saturday, April 4, 2015Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Al Iaquinta won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJorge Masvidal: Well-roundedvsAl Iaquinta: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Al Iaquinta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jorge Masvidal

Red Corner

Al Iaquinta

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1456

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Al IaquintaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jorge MasvidalMetricAl Iaquinta

4.05

Strikes / min

4.06

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

64%

Strike defense

61%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

0.63

72%

Takedown defense

74%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jorge MasvidalAl Iaquinta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)Al Iaquinta(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.2|Blue -45.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jorge MasvidalTargetAl Iaquinta

By target zone

42% acc · 75%

Head

17% acc · 33%

91% acc · 12%

Body

61% acc · 20%

85% acc · 13%

Leg

93% acc · 47%

By position

50% acc · 93%

Distance

36% acc · 98%

17% acc · 1%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

56% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jorge Masvidal rounds

even

Al Iaquinta rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:24

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:01

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 170

Sig Strikes

55 / 153

49.3%

Sig Str %

35.3%

86 / 173

Total Strikes

55 / 153

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 9

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Al Iaquinta	12 / 44	12 / 44	0 / 4
1	Jorge Masvidal	29 / 45	32 / 48	0 / 0
2	Al Iaquinta	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 3
2	Jorge Masvidal	20 / 51	20 / 51	0 / 0
3	Al Iaquinta	26 / 69	26 / 69	0 / 2
3	Jorge Masvidal	34 / 74	34 / 74	0 / 0

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15