Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jose Ochoa has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jose Ochoa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Asu AlmabayevW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24W
vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24L
KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25W
SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25W
SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26 Jose OchoaW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Nov 24W
KOvs Cody Durden · Jun 25W
DECvs Clayton Carpenter · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Asu AlmabayevMetricJose Ochoa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.32Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap+2.17
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Asu AlmabayevJose Ochoa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Asu Almabayev(8 fights)Jose Ochoa(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +38.4|Blue -38.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Asu AlmabayevTargetJose Ochoa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns3
Control3:16
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 2Asu Almabayev edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control3:47
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3Asu Almabayev edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control2:23
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
