Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrew Holbrook enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jake Matthews has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Andrew Holbrook (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26 Andrew HolbrookL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Ramsey Nijem · Jul 15L
KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jul 16L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Apr 17L
KOvs Thibault Gouti · Sep 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricAndrew Holbrook
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jake MatthewsAndrew Holbrook
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Andrew Holbrook(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +160.7|Blue -160.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jake MatthewsTargetAndrew Holbrook
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Andrew Holbrook edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:24
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:07Control
Round 2Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control2:24
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:47Control
Round 3Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control2:31
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
