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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Zhang Mingyang won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1489
Zhang Mingyang
Elo1471
Ozzy Diaz

Zhang MingyangvsOzzy DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, November 23, 2024Macau, China

Official fight result

Zhang Mingyang won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:25

Style matchupZhang Mingyang: Pressure fightervsOzzy Diaz: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Zhang Mingyang wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Zhang Mingyang wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Mingyang at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Zhang Mingyang is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Ozzy Diaz has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Ozzy Diaz has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Zhang Mingyang has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Ozzy Diaz has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Mingyang
Red Corner
VS
Ozzy Diaz
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1489
Elo
1471
27
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'4"
190.5 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang MingyangL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Brendson Ribeiro · Feb 24
W
KOvs Anthony Smith · Apr 25
L
KOvs Johnny Walker · Aug 25
L
KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 26
latest
Ozzy Diaz
oldest →
W
vs Djorden Santos · Mar 25
L
KOvs Ateba Gautier · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang MingyangMetricOzzy Diaz
7.71
Strikes / min
5.33
5.33
Strikes absorbed / min
6.52
43%
Strike defense
61%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
75%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.38Δ 3.57 — meaningful gap-1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1500Strikes8.6 vs 2.2Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Zhang MingyangOzzy Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601480150015201540← oldermost recent →
Zhang Mingyang(5 fights)Ozzy Diaz(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +17.7|Blue -17.7
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang MingyangTargetOzzy Diaz

By target zone

9
38% acc · 53%
Head
4
57% acc · 44%
2
50% acc · 12%
Body
5
100% acc · 56%
6
100% acc · 35%
Leg
0

By position

15
58% acc · 88%
Distance
9
75% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
25% acc · 12%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Zhang Mingyang rounds
0
even
0
Ozzy Diaz rounds
Round 1Zhang Mingyang edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
17 / 34
Sig Strikes
9 / 12
50%
Sig Str %
75%
19 / 38
Total Strikes
9 / 12
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ozzy Diaz9 / 129 / 120 / 00
1Zhang Mingyang17 / 3419 / 380 / 00

Zhang Mingyang

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5

Ozzy Diaz

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights3