Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marion Reneau won · SUB R2

Elo1495

Elo1404

Sara McMannvsMarion ReneauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · Saturday, February 24, 2018Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Marion Reneau won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:40

Model Prediction: Marion Reneau wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Marion Reneau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marion Reneau at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Marion Reneau threatens submissions; Sara McMann has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Marion Reneau has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Sara McMann

Red Corner

Marion Reneau

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1495

Elo

1404

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sara McMann

oldest →

SUBvs Gina Mazany · Feb 17

SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17

vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21

vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22

latest

Marion ReneauL5 streak

oldest →

vs Cat Zingano · Jul 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20

vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21

KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sara McMannMetricMarion Reneau

2.26

Strikes / min

3.20

1.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

47%

Strike defense

59%

4.38

TDs / 15 min

0.62

50%

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sara McMannMarion Reneau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sara McMann(10 fights)Marion Reneau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +91.4|Blue -91.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sara McMannTargetMarion Reneau

By target zone

12% acc · 56%

Head

61% acc · 100%

40% acc · 22%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 22%

Leg

By position

13% acc · 67%

Distance

46% acc · 48%

75% acc · 33%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

85% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sara McMann rounds

even

Marion Reneau rounds

Round 1Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control4:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marion Reneau edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:10

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 49

Sig Strikes

23 / 39

19%

Sig Str %

62%

76 / 120

Total Strikes

37 / 55

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

62.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:10

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marion Reneau	2 / 3	5 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Sara McMann	3 / 14	68 / 83	1 / 1	0
2	Marion Reneau	21 / 36	32 / 48	0 / 0	1
2	Sara McMann	6 / 35	8 / 37	1 / 4	0

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12